My Feb. 28, 2011 column predicted that in China “a hard landing is likely” and “a recession in Europe is inevitable.” Both are unfolding.China just reported its slowest quarter of GDP growth since 2009, with the economy growing at an 8.1% annualized clip from January through March of 2012, down from 8.9% in the final three months of 2011. Growth has been slipping steadily from the 11.9% pace in the first quarter of 2010, and Beijing seems unable to stop the slide at this stage of the game.
China’s response to the Great Recession was massive fiscal stimulus that amounted to more than 12% of GDP, twice the relative size of the U.S. package. Shock therapy worked last time around for China, nearly doubling GDP growth within a year, but it came with strong inflationary side effects. Food prices rose by double-digit percentages, stinging Chinese who live on subsistence incomes. Stocks stunk, Chinese savers couldn’t invest abroad, and banks paid negative deposit rates. Read more.......
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